Background:

Family medicine forms the foundation of the healthcare system, ensuring comprehensive and continuous care for the population. Understanding the gap between actual and required demand for primary healthcare (PHC) services is crucial for optimizing resource allocation and improving patient outcomes.

Aim of the study:

This study concept aims to assess the real versus due demand for primary healthcare services in Poland. The research results can be used as an assessment of future staffing strategy in primary care.

Methodology:

The real demand was estimated based on historical utilization data of PHC services across different age groups over the past three years, assuming similar future trends. The due demand will be additionally determined by analyzing the recommended number and type of services that should be provided annually for each age group, along with the estimated duration of these services, based on experiences of Medical and Diagnostic Center in Siedlce, Poland.

Results:

Values projected with the model of the real demand, demonstrate a persistent future shortage of family medicine specialists in Poland. In 2020 there was a shortage of 6,029 family doctors, which resulted in only 64.40% of needs being met. Over the next 25 years, this percentage will only increase to 78,25%, lacking 3352 specialists.
The study revealed that the due demand for PHC services exceeds the real demand, indicating a potential gap in healthcare utilization. Enhancing health awareness and preventive care could lead to increased service utilization. However, without adjustments in healthcare workforce capacity, a rise in demand may compromise service availability and accessibility.

Conclusions:

Bridging the gap between real and due demand requires strategic workforce planning and health education initiatives. Policymakers should consider optimizing PHC capacity to meet the population's actual healthcare needs effectively.