Keywords: primary care, family doctors, project of demand
Background:
Family doctors are a key link in the healthcare system, especially in the terms of primary care. In 2020, the number of family doctors in Poland satisfied only 64.4% of the needs defined by the National Consultant for Family Medicine. The average age among family doctors was 55.23 years, while for all physicians (excluding physicians with no specialization) the average age was 54.97 years. People of retirement age (65+) accounted for 19.82% of all professionally active family doctors.
Aim of the study:
The aim of the study was to project the demand and the number of family doctors in Poland until 2045. This study can be used as an assessment of current staffing strategy in primary care.
Methodology:
The analysis was based on the data from the Database of Systemic and Implementation Analyses of the Polish Ministry of Health. The projection model was developed using Microsoft Excel, including specially prepared life tables as the base of the model. The following groups of supply factors were taken into the analysis: age structure, inflow of family doctors to the labor market, outflow of family doctors from the profession, and as a demand factor - the demand for family doctors.
Results:
Values projected with the model, demonstrate a persistent future shortage of family medicine specialists in Poland. In 2020 there was a shortage of 6,029 family doctors, which resulted in only 64.40% of needs being met. Over the next 25 years, this percentage will only increase to 78,25%, lacking 3352 specialists.
Conclusions:
The results of the study argue for the current strategy not being effective long term in improving the healthcare system in the matter of primary care and family medicine. Unsatisfactory prediction yields call for an alternate systemic approach, one targeted more towards primary care physicians and implementation of telemedicine and new technologies.
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